MANILA — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Friday that it has raised its monitoring status to a La Niña alert.
This alert is triggered when there is a 70 percent or higher probability of La Niña developing within the next six months. According to climate models and expert assessments, there is a 70 percent likelihood of La Niña formation during the August-September-October 2024 season.
Last week, PAGASA noted that the onset of La Niña might be delayed until the last quarter of 2024 due to significant uncertainty in global climate models.
Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing; however, a further cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has been observed.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by variations in wind intensity, direction, and sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, impacting global climate.
El Niño represents the warm phase of ENSO, leading to reduced rainfall and drier conditions in the Philippines, with tropical cyclones forming farther away. In contrast, La Niña is associated with above-normal rainfall and tropical cyclones developing closer to the Philippine landmass.
The Department of Agriculture has previously stated that La Niña has a more severe impact on agriculture, a view that PAGASA climatologists support.