Manila, Philippines – The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Wednesday that there is a 74% probability of weak La Niña developing between December and January.
PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction section chief Ana Solis explained on November 20, “La Niña alert persists, with La Niña-like conditions currently prevailing in the Tropical Pacific,”
She added, that the weak La Niña is expected to last until the first quarter of 2025, but a full-blown La Niña is considered unlikely at this point.
In terms of weather impacts, Solis stated that the country will experience near to above normal rainfall in December, particularly in the eastern regions.
In January, near to above normal rainfall is also expected, particularly in the Bicol region, Eastern Visayas, Mimaropa, and Southern Luzon.
“The rainfall in January will most likely be caused by a low pressure area, a potential tropical cyclone, and the intertropical convergence zone,” said Solis.
Solis further noted that one to two tropical cyclones could affect the country in December, with a total of two to eight tropical cyclones expected from December to May.