MANILA – The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a warning on Friday that tropical depression Julian may intensify into a typhoon this weekend.
Julian could potentially reach typhoon status by Sunday evening, bringing intense rainfall to northern Luzon until midday Monday, according to PAGASA’s latest advisory.
As of 4 p.m., the system was located 425 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, with sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts reaching up to 70 kph.
Wind Signal No. 1 has been raised over the Babuyan Islands and eastern mainland Cagayan, anticipating winds between 39 to 61 kph.
Julian, moving southwest at 20 kph, is projected to follow a loop-like path over the Philippine Sea, just east of Extreme Northern Luzon, over the next five days. It is expected to come closest to mainland Cagayan on Sunday and Batanes on Monday.
PAGASA noted that, unlike Typhoon Carina in July, Julian is not expected to trigger the same level of monsoon rains due to its current position and movement.
Chris Perez, chief of PAGASA’s Marine Meteorological Services Section, mentioned that the monsoon season typically occurs from June to September, making a significant monsoon episode unlikely in Julian’s case.
Perez emphasized that despite Julian’s differing behavior compared to previous storms like Carina, Enteng, and Gener, the public should not become complacent.
Julian is the 10th tropical cyclone monitored this year and the sixth for September alone, a notable number for a single month. PAGASA also warned that a few more storms could form or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the coming weeks.
Perez added that historically, the most destructive typhoons often occur in the last quarter of the year, especially during La Niña periods when the number of cyclones tends to increase. He anticipates two to three more storms in October, with fewer expected in November and December, though these may still be intense.
PAGASA continues to issue bulletins every three hours for tropical cyclones that make landfall. However, some local officials, such as Marikina City Mayor Marcy Teodoro, have expressed concerns that this frequency is insufficient for timely decisions on class or work suspensions.
Maximo Peralta, PAGASA’s Officer-in-Charge of the Office of the Deputy Administrator for Administration and Engineering, explained that hourly forecasts are currently not feasible due to the extensive preparation required in gathering and analyzing data.
Peralta also pointed out that PAGASA aims to establish 10 new weather stations across the country this year to improve the accuracy and timeliness of their forecasts.